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Monday, July 28, 2008

CLASSIC SEVERE MCS EXPECTED!

Looks like a classic severe MCS will shape up this evening and tonight per the latest RUC and WRF models. Per my last post I mentioned this area for possible severe weather event as the WRF painted this area exactly! It looks as though the upper Missouri valley will see the brunt of the action with very strong winds and large hail. The tornado potential could be there if storms could stay rooted, although it looks like a fast transition into a more linear mode.
Looking at Environmental Canada's take on things, there could be a few strong tornadoes in the Southern part of that Nation. I do not like trying to forecast those areas as I have limited exposure to some of the products. I will leave that area up to Reed and company as they have used and been very succesful with the products and areas up North, much like last year with the monster wedge/multi vortex.
As far as the severe weather in the States...I would suspect the best area for severe weather would be North Dakota and South Dakota as CAPE values and decent shear are now in place and per my last post, I still believe the SPC has the Moderate risk a little far East and would not be surprised if they move it just a bit as convection seems to fire as CIN values start collapsing further west, very close to the best CAPE values...3000j/kg.
I will not be able to look much more at the weather or post much this evening due to issues with the pool and trying to fix it.....lets just say I have kids!

1 comment:

DM said...

Yo Lanny,

Sorry I haven't had time to talk with you much lately, I haven't talked much with anyone though really...

You watch the Greensburg show? I can't even get it here, but I'm sure it's good.

I'll give you a ring this weekend,

Dick