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Monday, July 28, 2008

Severe Weather?

Looks like a possible decent severe weather setup later today (Monday) in the Northern plains. Latest model runs (WRF) seem to show some nice 500mb wind on the order of 40kts with decent CAPE values and a weak frontal boundry. SPC has put the area under a slight risk (although they may have the slight area to far east) As seen below, WRF showing convection going up after 20z, with supercells right on the boundry.
If the storms can stay rooted long enough there could be a few tornadoes especially in South Dakota as winds are backed SE. I would not be surprised to see a red box go up and a few tornado reports later today not to mention some pretty big hail. Per WRF and GFS looks like another classic MCS as the stoms congeal later tonight. Might need to keep an eye on this area for later today.

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