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Sunday, May 18, 2008

Tornado outbreak?


After painstakingly looking at each model run since last week, it looks as though the ridge starts to slide and or break starting Wed. with some gulf air sliding North.

GFS has been consistent with the placement of the low and although I hate to call something this far out....it looks like we have a good chance at a tornado outbreak from Kansas through South Dakota. It will be interesting to see how the boys in Norman(SPC) call this on the latest day3.

ECMWF runs have been good overall but place the low further....either case, still would suspect the possibility of tornadoes and all modes severe weather it be South Dakota or Kansas/Nebraska.

Simulated CAPE values exceed 4500j/kg with 175-225M2/S2 at this time. This of course can and will probably change seeing as we are still 4 days out at this point but it still needs to be looked at carefully.
As the time frame gets closer I will try to update as I can

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