CLASSIC SEVERE MCS EXPECTED!

Looks like a classic severe MCS will shape up this evening and tonight per the latest RUC and WRF models. Per my last post I mentioned this area for possible severe weather event as the WRF painted this area exactly! It looks as though the upper Missouri valley will see the brunt of the action with very strong winds and large hail. The tornado potential could be there if storms could stay rooted, although it looks like a fast transition into a more linear mode.
Looking at Environmental Canada's take on things, there could be a few strong tornadoes in the Southern part of that Nation. I do not like trying to forecast those areas as I have limited exposure to some of the products. I will leave that area up to Reed and company as they have used and been very succesful with the products and areas up North, much like last year with the monster wedge/multi vortex.
As far as the severe weather in the States...I would suspect the best area for severe weather would be North Dakota and South Dakota as CAPE values and decent shear are now in place and per my last post, I still believe the SPC has the Moderate risk a little far East and would not be surprised if they move it just a bit as convection seems to fire as CIN values start collapsing further west, very close to the best CAPE values...3000j/kg.
I will not be able to look much more at the weather or post much this evening due to issues with the pool and trying to fix it.....lets just say I have kids!

May 13th Severe Weather and Moderate Risk???

If you are into weather, a chaser, forecaster or even an meteorologist and have never question the forecasting abilities of the "boys" down in Norman now would be a GREAT time sto start!
Let me just start off by saying that they blew the outbreak on the 10th not to mention all the moderate risks they have thrown out this year and ZERO tornadoes.
You have to wonder if the government is still doing random piss tests because these guys are smoking for sure! Take today for an example: Morning run placed the Moderate risk with a hatched area for tornadoes across most of Eastern Oklahoma....by 16z it was obvious (via RUC)
that the risk was very low as 850 winds stayed SSW. Not to mention the CAPE value shrinking further to the South throughout the day and was present with the 18z sounding.
Had any of those "forecasters" taken a look at the WRF 4km they would have seen the convective mode and probably would have ended with a slight and not a moderate with 5% for tornadoes! Speaking of which 1 tornado reported today....IN MISSOURI, NOT EVEN IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So much like everyone else, we dove south and caught the storm on I-40...were displayed with a wonderful wall cloud and some great structure but much like most events this year it did not last. The storm to the south pushed out and the FFD pulled around our storm. Got some good pics and video that I will try to post later but that's about it. Finally let the storm run over us south of 40 on 69hwy but not much left of it at that point.
Looks like this might be our last run for a good week or so.