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Saturday, February 11, 2012

Setting The Stage For An Ice Storm?

Looking at radar trends this morning, it looks as though a little snow is falling across Kansas into OK This is not my main concern though as it looks like we *might* be dealing with a decent winter storm starting Sunday afternoon/evening into Moday.

I am not real worried so much about the snow as I am about the very cold temps that will be hanging around for the next few days. As seen in the graphic below, the WRF model is really aggressive with the very cold temps from South Dakota to Northern Texas.

This cold "dome" is forecasted to still be in place with the arrival of our next storm system which is certainly concering to me for my area/CWA as well as much of Oklahoma. In looking at the surface temps for 18z Moday, there is a bit of question as to just how warm the temps will be aloft (just above the surface) during the onset of this system. Of course if the temps stay cold we will likely see snow totals in the 1-3 inch range as depicted in the graphic below, with the snow changing to rain very quickly as we warm up through the morning/day on Monday.

But if we warm just above the surface from Sunday night into Monday and through the day on Monday we could be looking at an ice or freezing rain situation. Either way, it apprears right now that Monday morning travel will be a tough go for some and I suspect that the local NWS office in Tulsa and Norman to enhance wording and or issue some winter storm watch/warning later today

As can be seen with the simulated graphic above, it does appear that we will see those temps rise just above the surface on Monday....this could be a very nasty little winter storm for some as travel looks like it could be rough on Monday. Stay tuned to your local weather outlets or TV stations for more info if you live in these areas.  

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