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Monday, September 6, 2010

Did someone say RAIN?

Tropic Storm Hermine making landfall near Brownsville Texas the big bad Earl was not so big and bad afterall. But what does appear to be big and bad is the upcoming flodding event that will take place starting this Tuesday and go through the better part of the week for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and possibly Kansas.
Currently we have Tropical Storm Hermine making landfall near Brownsville, TX with thunderstorms and even a few tornado reports on the northeast side of the cirrculation.

Below I have posted a current radar grab of Hermine from level 2 that clearly shows her "outline" as well as a Tornado Watch and a single tornado warning.

What is more interesting to me however is the projected path of this TS as "she" moves north into TX and then Oklahoma. Below is a graphic of the "Spaghettii Models." These are Hurricane models that forecast the exact movement of a tropical system, hurricane or otherwise. Usually there is a little difference between each model and sometimes they can be way off from one another but generally speaking, when most of the models paint a general area you can almost bet on the track and placement of the system. You can clearly see that the models ARE in agreement with the forecast track which certainly means that flodding is a real probability for Texas and Oklahoma.

Of course this will certainly help some of the folks that are in a light drought but Hermine could and probably will bring some dangerous flooding as well. Most of the local NWSFO within the projected paths have started using somewhat of an enhanced wording at least to say that flooding will be possible throughout the area. The graphic below shows the rainfall totals expected (some could be higher or lower in local areas) and include 3-4 inches.

4+ inches of rain look to be possible in central Oklahoma which could cause some flodding issues. Folks in these areas certainly need to keep an eye on the weather!

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