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Thursday, September 2, 2010

A Boy Named Earl!

As seen above, Earl is a very large Cat. 4 hurricane

I have purposely not posted anything regarding hurricane Earl simply because NO ONE knew exactly what track he might take. It has been questionable at best, to try to figure out which model was correct and it's associated placement of Earl in regards to a US landfall.
While most of the spaghetti models do not show Earl making a US landfall it does seem likely that he will take a glancing blow on the east coast. In fact, North Carloina looks like a good place as any other and I would not be surprised to see some significant damage on the outer banks if Earl satys on current course. I have posted a graphic below with tropical storm force wind probabilities from the NHC as you and can see, TS force winds extend well inland all along the east coast.

Right now (Thrusday 2-2-10) Earl, is a strong cat. 4 Hurricane with sustained winds at 140mph with some higher gusts. At present time if he did make landfall this would be a major hurricane with much devestation I am sure. Of course with the shape of our economy, this would be costly in many ways and something we do not need. But even if Earl stays "out to sea" there is a high likelyhood that the US will take a direct hit from a TS or even a hurricane.

As you can see above, we basically have wave after wave of energey/convection coming off the coast of Africa. Right now we currently have TS Fiona and TS Gaston behind Earl and to top it all off, we have another area of strong convection right behind them. THIS COULD BE AN ACTIVE MONTH to say the least! It is probable that one of these "waves" will "slip through" going into the Gulf which we do not need! (Think Oil) or staying torwards the east and possibly making landfall on the east coast.
Certainly something to keep an eye on!

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