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Friday, September 18, 2009

First REAL severe weather of fall?

Got a chance to sit down tonight and go over a few models for the rest of this week and the first part of next week....interesting weather set up for Monday/Tuesday time frame.
To be honest, I have not looked at any weather data in about a month due to work, kids, school and everything else going on.
Right now it looks to me like we have a shot at severe from MO back down into OK, with the best chance IMO from central to western OK. However, per the GFS it does not look like the upper level winds will be close enough to the best instability (2500j/kg plus) in parts of western Oklahoma. Of course, we are still 3 days out and this may be another wait and see type thing but......if we can get some of the upper level support closer to the decent CAPE we might see some good supercells. Obviously this also depends on how much moisture we can get before the low closes and the front pushes through. Again, wait and see type thing.
At the very least we will likey see some type of severe probably in the form of squall as the front makes its move south.
Either way, I will likely chase this event and maybe score some structure or lightning pics.
Who knows????

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