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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

TORNADOES LATER TODAY?



I know, I know....here it is Aug. 19 and I am sitting here looking over forecast models for later today.....guess someone forgot to tell Mother nature what month it is!
Above are a few parameters that I usually look at when we have a possible severe set up, included are: wind speeds at low levels, helecity values from 0-1km and 0-3km and temp and dewpoint spread with the Lifted Index overlay.
Today actually looks very good for severe weather and even the chance of a few strong tornadoes. The best energy (the best place for severe weather) will of course be hung through central Missouri and back into eastern Kansas. Conditions here could get pretty rough later today with all modes of severe possible including tornadoes.
The second area of interest to me is southern/southeastern Kansas into Oklahoma. This area will not see the same "good energy" as up north but it looks to have a some pretty decent shear and good instability and with a cold front to the north, we could see some severe down there.
Today could get interesting.....

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