Looking at the latest model runs, it appears that there is a chance of severe weather today from Northern Texas in Oklahoma. Posted above is the sounding from this mornings run as well as the helecity values and moisture return. The WRF model is probably overdoing the mositure a bit and the sounding is not all that impressive but the shear is more than decent for this time of year. Right not it looks like the best shot of severe is going to be in Northern Texas along the I35 corridore and then back East and North into Oklahoma. There is a slight chance for a tornado or two if a storm can get isolated enough or rooted but right now it looks like the main threat will be the normal: large hail, strong winds and blah blah blah.....Then my concern is for the chance of a possible snow/ice storm from Kansas into Oklahoma. Temps behind the front drop like crazy and we could be looking a major winter storm by late Tuesday.
I will try to post more with later outlooks.